In announcing his second presidential run, Chris Christie took the fight to Trump. Will his run fail soon after the primaries begin — as it did in 2016 — or even earlier? Or does Christie become a black swan, the successful anti-Trump Republican candidate?
When I say successful, I do not mean that he wins the nomination, an unlikely event — the prominent Irish bookie Paddy Power has him at 66-1. I mean a candidate that gives Trump a run for his money through the primaries. And then, unlike Cruz in 2016, creates an enduring anti-Trump Republican presence. Or even a movement that rejects the Christofascist cultural war that underpins the MAGA movement.
It is improbable. But it costs nothing to consider the possible trajectory of an anti-MAGA Republican campaign.
The candidates running against Trump have given the Republicans little reason to vote for them. Ron DeSantis is alone in second place mainly because a smashing victory in his last Governor race gave him electoral credibility; that he was MAGA without the drama; and after the 2022 mid-terms and a lackluster campaign launch, the 2020 loser had shed his aura of invincibility.
DeSantis then lost his mojo when the spotlight revealed he has the personality of dollar-store mayonnaise, Jeb Bush’s campaigning skills, and an inability to stop saying ‘woke.’ It does not help that the whole point of MAGA is the drama. Worse for Ron, Trump's legal jeopardy has added to his cred. And the MAGA King still has sway over the RNC, the DC Republicans, and countless local GOP politicos.
The base has shown symptoms of dissatisfaction. But those looking for a candidate other than Trump have had nowhere to go.
Beyond Ron, the field is invisible. The next highest-ranked candidate, Mike Pence, is polling at 5.4% — and who will vote for him? He would have been the evangelicals’ guy in other times, but they are Trump’s poodles now. And Mike makes DeSantis look electric.
Nikki Haley rates 4.5% support. The ex-UN Ambassador had a reputation for being a sober-minded professional. No longer. Her campaign site does not list her policy positions. And for some reason, she has bet the ranch on bashing trans-athletes in women’s sports. When Jake Tapper asked her during a CNN town hall how she would define “woke”, Haley replied,
“The idea that we have biological boys playing in girls’ sports – it is the women’s issue of our time.”
“How are we supposed to get our girls used to the fact that biological boys are in their locker room? And then they wonder why a third of our teenage girls seriously contemplated suicide last year. We should be growing strong girls; confident girls.”
I am unqualified to speak for women. And I am not a mental health professional. But I would bet that most women rank school shootings, economic issues, equal pay, career opportunities, sexual harassment, and overarching paternalistic sexism as more relevant concerns than trans-athletes. I also suspect that the cause of the current crisis of suicidal thoughts and attempts among adolescent girls is related more to social media and cyberbullying than “biological boys in their locker room.”
Vivek Ramaswamy is next, at 3.5%. Which is about what you would expect a novelty candidate to get. I doubt we will hear much from him or about his scattershot policy positions — which include, “dismantling Lyndon Johnson’s failed Great Society,” using “our military to annihilate Mexican drug cartels and defend against China’s “opium war,” and pardoning Trump.
Tim Scott scores 2.2%. Unlike most Republicans, he projects a Reaganesque optimism. That will not help him with the current GOP. Republicans regard their Black candidates with bemused tolerance. Herman Cain (2012 primaries, zero delegates) and Ben Carson (2016 primaries, nine delegates) were celebrated as tokens and got nowhere near the prize.
Asa Hutchinson is the last candidate registering on 538’s aggregation of primary candidate polling, with 0.7%. Hutchinson is a classic old-time Republican in an era that has not produced a successful old-time Republican since Romney. Enough said.
Christie has yet to register in the polls. He will. However, it is hard to say how high. If he does take the war to Trump, in a way the other pusillanimous candidates have not, he may make some noise and attract attention. Although, his lack of online presence is an oddity today.
Christie is an indifferent user of social media. And his campaign website has nothing beyond “send money,” “sign up” and a dead link to watch his kick-off event. However, he does not need a lot of detail as his only selling point is to be the anti-Trump.
He makes his intentions clear with his campaign motto, “Because The Truth Matters,” and his plea that the reader “Join the Truth Movement.” It is a blatant dig at Trump’s horn of dishonesty, his Truth Social website.
Christie has come out of the gate, making his position clear. He attacked the other candidates for “woke ideology,” and called them “pretenders” who are “talking about issues that are so small that sometimes it’s hard to even understand them.”
He then slammed Trump,
“The person I am talking about who’s obsessed with the mirror, who never admits a mistake, who never admits a fault, and who always finds someone else and something else to blame for whatever goes wrong, but finds every reason for anything that goes right – is Donald Trump.”
(Note to Christie’s speech writer. Put your subject, Donald Trump, upfront. “The person I am talking about” sounds wishy-washy. Rewrite as “Donald Trump is obsessed with the mirror, never admits a mistake … etc.)
This imprecation echoes a sentiment he expressed at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership conference in 2022,
“We keep losing and losing and losing. The reason we’re losing is because Donald Trump has put himself before everybody else.”
(Rewrite as “Trump is why we keep losing and losing and losing. He (that narcissistic bigmouth) doesn’t care about you. It’s all about him.”)
I have no love for Christie. His early prominence came from viral videos of him beating up on old ladies and other low-power people. Hopefully, he is not just a bully who punches down but proves to be a street brawler who can take shots to the jaw and give as good as he gets.
The Democrats' best chance of winning the 2024 elections is probably with Trump as the Republican candidate — even though the devastation he would inflict on the country if he won is unthinkable. And anything Christie could do to reduce Trump in the eyes of non-MAGA Republican voters would diminish his chances in the general election.
Should Christie be up to the task, he has a target-rich environment. He should focus on Trump’s intelligence and call him a loser. For instance, Christie should not say that Trump is a ‘convicted sexual abuser’ — MAGAs celebrate him for that. He should say that Trump lost to Carroll.
He should not say that Trump kept classified documents. He should say Trump was so dumb he got caught. Christie should add that Trump is a loser who cannot win the popular vote. Who can only win an election by trying to fix it. And that he is so stupid he confessed to committing a crime on tape. That kind of thing.
Unfortunately, it is equally likely that Christie is no more than a legend in his own mind — that his tough talk is no more than talk. Or maybe, Christie will do his best, but the media — drowning in bothsiderism — will keep talking about Bridgegate. As if that supposed fit of pique — for which NJ prosecutors provided no evidence that Christie knew — is somehow equal to Trump’s attempts to torpedo America.
I hope Christie is as tough as he thinks he is. We will have to see.
I think you should write Christie’s speeches but why would I sentence you to that misery, thank you Pitt