NOTE: The reader should take nothing in this piece to mean that the Democrats can afford to take their foot off the gas. Biden has hit the road and taken the fight to Trump. But he, his team, the entire Democratic party, and every American who cares about democracy must do all they can to thwart fascism in America. Fortunately, they have more of a tailwind than they did at the beginning of the year.
The signs are grim
The polls say Trump will win in November. British bookies have installed him as the favorite. His unfavorability gap is smaller than President Biden’s (-10.2% to -14.2%). Surveys show Biden losing ground among two traditional Democratic demographics, the under-30s and Hispanics. And cable news reports all these depressing numbers as flashing red warning signs for Biden.
I bought into the doomsaying. At the end of last year, I was hoping Biden would come to his senses. Accept that he would be a one-termer. Ride off into the sunset. And let Governor Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom, or another candidate I had not thought of, take up the challenge.
I have changed my mind.
Trump is a political idiot savant and lucky
Trump under-polled in 2016. He was a charismatic outsider with a gift for insult. And the conservative hoi polloi saw one of their own in the spoiled-rotten scion of a predatory real estate developer. To everyone’s surprise, including his own, he converted his NY Outerborough bullshit into the Republican nomination. The rest is history.
In 2021, the cognoscenti wrote him off after his one accomplishment-free and disastrous presidential term. In November 2022, the media dismissed his premature, low-energy announcement of a 2024 run as a stay-out-of-jail ploy rather than a serious play. The conservative world was ready for Ron DeSantis, Florida’s youthful prince-in-waiting. The smart money picked the impressively credentialed sure-thing, fresh off a generational rout in his gubernatorial reelection. Then old pudding-fingers ran the worst campaign in most people’s memory.
And here we are.
Biden’s future is brighter than it seems
So why am I newly optimistic? I think Trump’s numbers are a mirage. In 2016, conservative voters did not want to admit they had a thing for the corpulent crybaby. In 2024, the MAGAs do not dare say that the affair is over. In 2016, the base picked the forbidden fruit. In 2024, they are spitting out the seeds.
I am not blind. I see the rallies. The cultists show up in their Trump regalia, full of righteous piss and vinegar, prostrate on the altar. But that is the lunatic fringe. They are the people who would still vote for Trump if they saw a video of Putin giving him a golden shower. But to win, a presidential candidate has to do two things. Get the base to polls. And win the majority of the middle.
Polls that favor Trump cannot say how likely the respondents are to vote. The hardcore will always show up. But for many, that decision is made far closer to the election. And I sense (which is proof of nothing) that Trump’s polling is buoyed by support from people who say they will vote — but won’t.
On the other hand, many Democrats, never very good at toeing the line, have registered their displeasure at some aspect of Biden’s policy with an inconsequential polling thumbs down. There are the pro-Palestinians who do not like what they perceive as Biden’s reflexive pro-Israeli position. And there are climate change activists who feel betrayed by their sense that Biden remains too obliging of fossil fuel interests.
However, we must note that seven months before an election, parties often fight civil wars. But closer to the election, the war is between the two parties, with other candidates playing a spoiler role. Some Democrats may not like Biden’s foreign or energy policies — but not so much that they will vote for Trump. Dear God, the man would nuke the Gaza Strip. And he looks like he swims in oil.
These disaffected liberals have three choices. They can stay home. They can vote for a third-party candidate — which has the same effect as not voting. Or they can vote for Biden.
Third-party
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Cornel West be the Ralph Nader of 2024? West’s best opportunity to stroke his ego is in Michigan, where he is courting the Islamic vote. Michigan is the swing state with the largest Muslim population by percentage (2.4%). Along with Wisconsin (1.2%) and Pennsylvania (1.2%), it is one of three tossup states where they could represent the margin of victory or loss. And they are not pleased with Biden’s perceived pro-Israeli stance.
Of the three Muslim US Representatives, Rep Ilhan Omar (D-MN) has already announced that, despite disagreements, she will support Biden in November. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) encouraged the ‘uncommitted’ vote (13.2%) in Michigan’s Democratic primary. And André Carson has been quiet on the subject. However, unlike Nader, Tlaib and Carson are politicians who need a DC base, and supporting Biden will give them leverage and a political future.
Will West make inroads in the Black and youth vote? I cannot say. However, the young are less likely to vote. On the other hand, Scranton Joe will likely score more support among unionized white workers, especially after the union bosses stop playing coy and get into the game.
Kennedy is a wild card. I suspect his early favorability is due to his name and novelty. It is also easy to express support when there are no consequences. The man himself makes DeSantis look like a competent campaigner. He is equally unlikely to do well under the full glare of national attention. And RFK is as likely to attract unhappy Republican voters as he is Democrats.
Dobbs
When the Supreme Court ripped away a woman’s right to bodily self-autonomy, the misogynists had no idea they would inspire a fury in women that had been alternatively simmering and flaring since the Women’s March on January 21, 2017, the day after Trump’s inauguration.
Now conservatives want to shoot themselves in the other foot with contraception bans.
Trump is hemorrhaging support
Trump won the nomination easily and early. So everything must be copacetic in MAGA world — right? Wrong. While Biden was scoring 90%+ in most of the Democratic primaries, Trump was losing around 20% of the Republican primary voters — even after Nikki Haley and DeSantis dropped out of the race.
The user stats at Trump’s social media site, Truth Social, also show softening support for the limited trick pony. It is hemorrhaging users, and its traffic has plummeted.
Equally damaging is that Trump is losing ground in the “he’s too old” battle. Biden followed up his vigorous State of the Union address with visits to most battleground states — while Trump worked his thumbs at Mar-a-Lago, expelling an all-cap, incontinent stream of ever more histrionic, “I’m the victim here.”
The lawsuits
So far, Trump has used his legal troubles to gin up support and dollars. But that changes if he is found guilty in a criminal case. He has tried to push the trials past the November election date. However, as it stands, the Manhattan Stormy Daniels payoff case will likely end by the summer.
As for the others, nobody knows how long SCOTUS will delay the DC Jan 6 case. Or how long it will take for Judge Aileen Cannon to be thrown off the documents case. Or when the Georgia RICO case will finally take place. But, fingers crossed, one of those cases will get to a verdict before the middle of October.
Money
Trump and the RNC have seen a slowdown in donations. Beyond meaning there is less cash for campaigning, it also reflects donors are no longer so enthusiastic about their candidate. The ‘experts’ say that the blaring media coverage is worth billions in free publicity. It is. But elections are won by registering voters, filing local election lawsuits, and getting out the vote — where is the money for that?
Trump also needs money to put on his hate-fests. And the cash crunch is hurting. His campaign site’s “Events” page used to announce “No upcoming events.” Now, you cannot even find it. If you google ‘DonaldTrump2024 campaign site,’ you are directed to a winred site dedicated to raising money for Trump to take on NY AG Letitia James and the $355M award + interest she won against him.
Worse, even as the cash flow diminishes, Trump has directed a compliant RNC to direct its scarce resources and future donations to his lawyers.
Conclusion
Biden will win the war if he continues to take the fight to Trump. Gone is his erstwhile strategy of ignoring Trump and celebrating his outstanding legislative record. Now that he is going toe to toe with the bully, even the mainstream media is starting to admit that Trump has lost a step and his knockout blows are catching air.
Nothing is guaranteed. Too much rests on this election for Biden, his team, and every Democrat to ever take thier foot off the gas. However, despite the numbers, Biden has far more paths to victory than a diminished Trump.
And that does not factor in the worst performance by a Congressional party in the US House since who knows when?
Trump will spend the seven months bitching about his legal woes and calling America a shithole country. But it seems the MAGAs are already bored, and Trump looks likely to fall short of his record-setting but losing 2020 tally.
The Democrats will retain the Presidency if they stay hustling and keep their eye on the prize. Judging by their disciplined unanimity in the House and Senate, that looks achievable.
I am heartened reading this diary Pitt, and if we’re lucky, the bozos who continue to support this grifter, will see the light. As Sir Winston said “Never give in” thank you