Trump does not give a damn about abortion one way or another. But he is desperate to get reelected. One, to salve his vanity. Two, in a last-ditch effort to stay out of prison. This need leaves him in a dilemma. He has to be all-in on denying women rights so his base will show up and vote. Yet, he also knows that abortion restrictions are political kryptonite.
So what is his solution? Simple. Tell the evangelicals he is all in on a 16-week national ban. At the same time, publicly deny he is thinking of a ban.
As the New York Times reported it:
A source familiar with conversations told NBC News that he [Trump] has talked to his advisers about supporting abortion rights up to 16 weeks as well, although a separate source cautioned he had not settled on a federal ban. The Trump campaign in a statement blasted reporting suggesting otherwise as "fake news."
In this statement, Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump, ignored the news of Trump kissing up to the conservative Christians and offered a howler:
“As President Trump has stated, he would sit down with both sides and negotiate a deal that everyone will be happy with.”
She added that he “appointed strong Constitutionalist federal judges and Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade and sent the decision back to the states, which others have tried to do for over 50 years.”
Only the cultists can still believe in Trump as “the deal maker.” This abject incompetent could not even come to an agreement with his teammates about building his border wall folly. And his attempts at better, cheaper, universal healthcare and any infrastructure deal died in the womb. The idea that he could negotiate with the Democrats, when he could not get Republicans on board, is a fantasy.
In addition, the idea that the religious bigots would settle for a state-by-state approach does not pass the smell test.
When Roe was the law of the land, anti-choice activists claimed they wanted its repeal, thus leaving abortion policy up to the states — as was the case before the Roe decision in 1973. They lied. Their aim is a national ban — not with a time limit or exceptions, but total.
They would probably accept the political reality of a 15-week ban, or the like, for now. But having established a precedent for federal laws to govern abortions, they would work to tighten the screws until the medical procedure was totally banned, ideally with zero exceptions — although, even they might allow abortions to save the life of the pregnant woman.
Trump, trying to appease the base but not close the door to independents, has said he favors a 16-week ban with exceptions for rape and incest. This 'compromise' is probably a case of trying to please everyone while pissing everyone off.
(An aside for math people with OCD: Trump says he supports a 16-week ban because it is a round number. “Know what I like about 16? It’s even. It’s four months.” It is not. The shortest four-month period in the calendar (ie it includes February) is 17 weeks and one day. The longest is 17 weeks and three days. Now, back to the essay.)
Democrats are ecstatic at the news that Trump is talking about a national abortion ban. They face hurdles in 2024. The media is still lost to both-siderism. Biden is getting hammered for his age — while Trump is getting a pass. In addition, Joe is getting no credit for an outstanding economy — by many measures, the best among developed countries.
And while the ‘experts’ predict softening growth globally in 2024, they still project the US to lead the west — and be closer to China in GDP growth than it has been in years.
Abortion is the one issue that resounds unequivocally in the Democrats' favor. And threats by Republicans to further interfere with women have driven liberals and fair-minded independents to the polls. In one example, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin campaigned on enacting a 15-week ban in his home state during last year’s state legislature elections and was kicked in the ass electorally.
Everyone who wants America to remain a democracy should pray that the Trump and the MAGA candidates continue to embrace misogyny and rights stripping. And shoot themselves in the political head.
Optimistic Democrats have dismissed tough polls as being no more right than other failed predictions. I hope they are right. But until proven so, liberals must take advantage of the fat slow ones the GOP is throwing over the middle of the plate.
I’m hoping for 3 strikes and the asshat’s out, but we will see, thank you Pitt