The rise of the "I love Trump, but I'm voting for someone else" MAGA voter

A man alone with some people who cannot get him off the hook

Trump has proved he is not subject to the traditional wisdom of election analysts. He famously said during his improbable 2016 campaign, "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?" Even he seemed amazed at the state of affairs - as he added, "It's, like, incredible."  

Then, despite four years of achievement-free (except for a tax cut) turmoil, an impeachment, dictator ass-kissing, and the turbulent turnover of a cabinet of thieves, crooks, and liars, he received more votes than any incumbent in his reelection bid. Unfortunately for Trump, the 2020 election also set a record for votes cast for a challenger — handing the loser his second popular-vote loss in a row. And this time, the minority-favoring rules of the Electoral College could not save him.

No matter what Trump does, the base declares their love for him. Polls have him solidly in first place among Republican candidates, even after a civil jury deemed him a sexual batterer and defamer. A criminal jury found his company guilty of criminal tax fraud. And a Special Prosecutor indicted him for stealing classified documents, potentially putting American lives at risk, and then lying about returning them.

However, cracks are appearing in the hegemony of the base. I will grant you that this might be part of the usual political ebb and flow. Last November, the solons of the click-bait cable universe wrote Trump off as he launched his 2024 bid to a bored crowd of nonentities. They were particularly scathing as his handpicked candidates in the 2022 midterms mostly flamed out.

Luckily for Trump, his leading opponent, the white-booted wannabe Florida fascist, Ron “I do not know how to pronounce my own name” DeSantis proved as exciting as a TSA security line. Worse, strangely for a politician, he could not even fake an interest in retail politics, dissed his potential donors, and in meet-and-greets acted like a petulant child forced to sit still during a Catholic mass. His marketing people tried to sell him as Trump without the drama. They were short-sighted. The drama is the point.

Trump’s numbers recovered. The conservative brain trust recast his legal difficulties as proof the Democrats were trying to take him down to thwart the popular will in 2024. And he positioned himself as a David facing down the Goliath of the Deep State. However, while the base continues to pledge its fidelity, their dedication to voting for him is not as steely as in his heyday.

It is probably impossible to know how many MAGAs still love Trump but will not vote for him. In large part because these disaffected cultists cannot publicly acknowledge they are the victims of a political con. Although some still value honesty enough to admit they will not vote for the serial loser. While little slam-dunk empirical evidence exists to illustrate a decline in MAGA backing, anecdotes may point to a softening of Trump support that is not just liberal wishful thinking.

Take 76-year-old Karen Szelest of Indian Land, South Carolina. She told an interviewer,

"Right now I am a Trump supporter. However, I think they're doing everything they can to have him not run for president of the United States. And I think perhaps, for the betterment of the country, I may vote for somebody else because they keep going after Trump, going after Trump, going after Trump."

Kathleen Evenhouse, a 72-year-old author from Pella, Iowa said,

"I think we're playing a game as a country. I think that damages any sense of justice or any sense of — should I even bother to vote? Why should I listen to the news? Or why should I care?"

After she said she would not vote for Trump, she added,

"If you dig a hole and then you have to climb out, it's going to be harder to do. And that's where I think he is."

Was “you dig a hole” Evenhouse’s subconscious acknowledgment that Trump was responsible for his own difficulties? These respondents seem to be regurgitating the party line without owning it.

Pusillanimity among his challengers has buoyed Trump’s prospects. These milquetoasts have argued they should be the GOP nominee without offering any reason Trump should not be. They parroted his talking points, leaving potential GOP primary voters confused about what they would get that Trump was not already providing.

Chris Christie was the first Republican with an emphatic, ‘do not vote for Bozo’ message. In announcing his candidacy, he called Trump a bitter, angry man” and said his time in office was a failure. And his sarcastic scorn of The Don’s excuses has to be a turn-on for some of the MAGA sewer rats.

The potential turning tide has even caused Mike Pence to make some noise about Trump being unqualified. But every time that mole sticks his head out, he ducks back in his hole at the first sign of trouble.

Fox News has also been taking swings at the standard bearer. Brett Baier was so challenging in an interview with Trump he even won plaudits from liberals. And Trump is doing himself no favors. One, by helping the prosecution with his dumbass confessions. And two, by appearing low-energy and reactive.

Trump may also have to deal with a quicker-than-expected trial calendar for his document espionage trial. His pet judge, Aileen Cannon, set an initial August 14th, 2023, date for the event. No one expects that to be the actual date, but she could have made it next April, and there would have been grumbling, but no surprise.

(Note: I understand that there are many theories on what Cannon is up to. But no one knows what is going through her head. And I do not rely on her discovering a sense of justice, but the timing has at least been unexpected.)

I can not say Trump will not be the 2024 Republican nominee. But I suspect that the odds of him being so are edging longer. Gun to head, I would say he will not be the nominee. However, the last two times I wrote about whether Trump would win the GOP nod, my conclusion was, “Who the hell knows?” I should stick with that. Although, that sort of honest wishy-washiness will bar me from a job as a political pundit on cable TV.