The GOP's slo-mo train wreck: Trump inevitably wins the 2024 primaries & loses the general* (*maybe)
Many people earn a living analyzing politics, so we get a lot of political analysis. And there is little benefit to it. So for brevity, here is Trump’s 2024 presidential run after Occam has razored it. He wins the nomination and loses the general election. I am so confident of this prediction that I rate its accuracy at c.50%. My point is nobody has a handle on the future — hell, all the prognosticators completely underrated Democratic support going into the 2022 midterms (except for those who did not).
But because I feel like having an opinion because everyone else does, here’s mine. Trump runs essentially unopposed in the primaries. Then loses the general election in a walkover.
There are rumblings in GOP neighborhoods. Trump is now deeply unpopular among the conservative punditocracy, political class, and plutocrats. But he does not care because those exalted souls have only one primary vote each, no more than each member of Trump’s dead-ender MAGA cult.
This simple fact has dampened the enthusiasm of any other GOP presidential wannabe to throw their hat into the ring. Especially, as the GOP primary voter is notably more fanatic than the general election GOP voter — which keeps candidates with a far better chance in the main contest from entering the primaries. It is the fatal flaw of the primary system that it is not guaranteed to pick the best candidate.
It was not always thus. Until the early 1900s, the parties picked their presidential candidates at national conventions. The candidates were fed into one end of the process and after fevered dealmaking, bribery, and wanton strong-arming - and round after round of votes - a candidate was spat out the other.
Then primaries started to replace the party in selecting their champions. Not that the party had necessarily done a better job. In 1912 Roosevelt ran for the Presidency, initially as a Republican. The GOP’s nomination contest was 1/3 primaries and 2/3 “the cigar-filled backrooms” of the individual state Republican parties. Roosevelt won the primary states, including his opponent Taft’s home state, Ohio.
But Taft controlled the party and its backroom boys. He went on to win the nomination at the convention he had fixed. And then lose the presidential election to Wilson — and finish behind Roosevelt. Which proved that the party picking the candidate is no guarantee that the best person (ie. the most electable candidate) wins. Roosevelt then upset the apple cart by running as a third party — Progressive, Bull Moose — candidate. Wilson won with only 41.8% of the vote. As Taft faded into oblivion as the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The job he wanted all along.
The Republican Party today is well aware that a peeved primary-losing Trump could run as a third-party candidate (unlikely) — or be a bomb-throwing, burn-it-all-down sideline anarchist (very likely). So they will be reluctant to back another Taft.
The second part of my opinion is that Trump loses the general. I understand those who say, look at 2016, and do not underestimate him again. But in 2016, Trump’s act was fresh. And he was running against one of the most qualified but also most despised politicians of our era. It was not fair. Hillary is thoughtful and caring - as well as intelligent, hard-working, and dedicated. But two decades of outrageous right-wing propaganda had poisoned the minds of the middle. And even some progressives thought she was too corporate. Nevertheless, she still garnered a 3 million popular vote edge in the election. But that is not how the US picks presidents.
Next, the doomsayers will say that if only 50,000 votes had switched in the toss-up states in 2020, Biden’s 7 million popular vote margin would have been no more than a consolation prize. Fair enough. But where is Trump likely to pick up votes? Republican candidates who have distanced themselves from Trump - like DeSantis, and Youngkin - did great. Candidates who strapped Trump to their backs failed in almost every competitive race.
Look at Trump himself. His announcement speech was universally panned — not as over the top, fact-free, racist, or something else offensive yet exciting - but for being boring. The onsite audience headed for the exits. And even some MAGAs want to move on from the ceaseless whining about 2020. They want new material, but Trump has none.
Trump probably has a puncher’s chance, if that. But he will not win the 2024 election — unless he does.