RFK Jr.'s campaign is a bigger threat to Trump than Biden
Introduction
The common wisdom is that RFK Jr. is a threat to Biden. Is that the truth? No. At least according to the polls. Yes, dear reader, I hear you saying that polls cannot be taken seriously. I agree. But they do shed light.
Polls are crap
Polls are junk — especially the ones seven months before a general election. Respondents say who they will vote for — but no one knows how likely they are to actually vote. And when it does not count, people can express an opinion (one favorite is that Biden's policies on the Middle East suck) without worrying about the consequences of not voting for him.
But when it does count — when the voter is in the voting booth — their anger at the candidate over one issue may well be doused by the realization the other guy is terrible on everything. And their “hell no” becomes an “at least he’s the lesser of two evils.”
Third-party
Or they throw away their vote on a so-called “third party” candidate. Which is a misnomer as usually this alternative “party” is just the presidential candidate’s outsized ego.
Take Robert Kennedy Jr. He does not even pretend the fig leaf of saying he is the Libertarian or Green Party candidate. Note: even those groups cannot seriously claim to be a viable political party until they roll up their sleeves and start fielding candidates in a significant number of races elections. The Green Party is running a mere 23 candidates in every election across the US in 2024 — including for Village Trustee in NY and a Water Reclamation District in IL.
Why bad polls have good news for Biden
This is where polls — as poorly conceived as they are — can be useful. They may not be good at absolutes. But they can be useful in relative analysis. Put another way, the inherent biases in a poll can cancel themselves out. Let me explain.
In a Wall Street Journal poll of voters in seven swing states — AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI. In six of the seven states, Biden trailed Trump. Both if Kennedy was included in the poll — and if he was not. So, how is this good news for Biden?
When Kennedy was not an option, Biden trailed Trump by 4% (43 to 39). When Kennedy was an option, Biden trailed by 3% (39 to 36). The 1% that Kennedy took away from Trump does not sound like a lot, but these toss-up state races are often decided by less than 1%.
Looking at these figures, you can dismiss them as polling nonsense. Or you can say that as flawed as they are, they show that Kennedy is, ceteris paribus, taking more support from Trump than Biden.
But you cannot say they show any sign that Kennedy is a worse threat to Biden than Trump.
Kennedy is a left-wing MAGA
Kennedy is psychologically a MAGA. He loves conspiracy theories. He is scientifically illiterate and hangs with science deniers. His spokespeople must keep “clarifying” what he “really meant.” And he appoints people for their money.
He has said that the attempted insurrection of the Jan 6 rioters was no big thing. In a podcast last October, he said of the attempted assassination of American democracy:
“What’s the worst thing that could happen? Right? I mean, we have an entire military, Pentagon, a few blocks away.”
Adding: “Then, you know, put the ones who broke the law in jail, and let’s move on.”
Does the man who aspires to be the Commander-in-Chief not realize who the C-in-C was on that dismal day? The military cannot do anything unless ordered to by the President. Which is worse — that Kennedy is a moron, or he is a coup apologist?
Kennedy did not misspeak. In a fund-raising letter sent out last week, he described people detained for storming the Capitol in 2021 as “J6 activists.” (What happened to law-breakers?). Now his people are trying to pretend he did not metaphorically shit his pants.
Campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear retreated to the expedient “he didn’t mean what he said” defense.
“That statement was an error that does not reflect Mr. Kennedy’s views. It was inserted by a new marketing contractor and slipped through the normal approval process.”
Learn to proofread, Bobby. Or hire someone who can. Or own what you said. And stop with “the dog ate my homework.”
Kennedy has even compared Trump favorably to Biden. On Monday, he told Erin Burnet on her CNN show that:
“I can make the argument that President Biden is the much worse threat to democracy, and the reason for that is President Biden is the first candidate in history — the first president in history that has used the federal agencies to censor political speech, so to censor his opponent”
Nice try, Sparky. Asking social media sites to be responsible is not censorship — where are the court cases? Who is Kennedy trying to appeal to? Lying does not seduce most liberals. Although even the Democrats have their lunatic fringe.
Kennedy had so lost his mind to monomania that in his anti-vax hysteria, he compared the health advice of serious doctors to the Holocaust while he spat on Anne Frank’s grave.
"Even in Hitler's Germany, you could cross the Alps to Switzerland. You could hide in an attic like Anne Frank did. Today the mechanisms [COVID] measures are being put in place so none of us can run and none of us can hide."
Kennedy seems to base his historical research on the success of the Von Trapp family in escaping from the Nazis. However, the Sound of Music solution was not available to most Germans after they elected fascism into power.
If this guy did not have money and a name, he would be prowling sidewalks, yelling at unseen enemies, and threatening clouds.
The company Kennedy keeps
Mother Jones has done an excellent job of digging into Kennedy’s campaign. It is worse than you imagined. In their article, RFK Jr. Fundraisers Tied to J6ers, QAnoners, Christian Nationalists, and Far-Right Extremists, David Corn and Dan Friedman feature a couple typical of Kennedy’s court.
Political commentators have had a tough time characterizing Kennedy’s campaign. Is it a project of the left or the right? (Kennedy recently told CNN that he considers President Joe Biden a “much worse threat to democracy” than Trump.)
The campaign defies easy categorization. But the participation of the Slepcevics shows how RFK Jr.’s presidential bid can coexist with advocates tied to far-right extremists and Trump superfans.
Who are the Slepcivics? To answer that question, we have to stare into an abyss of darkness, criminality, and mental defects. The article elucidates:
It was hardly surprising that the Slepcevics were supporting Kennedy, given that Tracy is a long-time anti-vaxxer prominent within the autism community. But the personal politics of the Slepcevics illuminate the weird currents propelling Kennedy’s White House bid, for the pair have hobnobbed with QAnoners, Christian nationalists, election deniers, and other pro-Trump extremists. Steve has a checkered past as a businessman that includes an arrest (but not a conviction) for allegedly defrauding victims of Hurricane Katrina.
Biden has plenty to worry about — but Kennedy should be low on his list
The Kennedys will forever be associated with Democratic policies. And the majority of them enthusiastically and visibly back Biden while warning that their relative is a dangerous nut. As sisters Rory Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, and brother Joseph P Kennedy II said in a statement posted to Twitter:
“The decision of our brother Bobby to run as a third party candidate against Joe Biden is dangerous to our country.
Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment. Today’s announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country.”
Nobody knows us better than our families. And I would like any liberal who thinks they do — and intends to vote for RFK Jr. — to tell me why Kennedy’s siblings are wrong.