On Sunday the French choose between the centrist President and his ultra-nationalist challenger
While Americans focus their political attention on the upcoming November election, there is perhaps a more consequential election in France on Sunday. The sitting President, Emmanuel Macron (La Républic En Marche! — The Republic On The Move) is in the second and final round of the Presidential election against Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National — National Rally). He is a centrist liberal, pro-European Union, and anti-Russia. She is skeptical of the EU and NATO and is far more supportive of Putin than any other significant Western European politician. Like Trump, her love of the Russian strongman may involve financial ties that have so far remained sub rosa.
It is a rerun of the 2017 election. But the result will be closer. Last time, Macron swatted the ultra-nationalist Le Pen away by a 2-to-1 margin. But echoing an ominous pan-European authoritarian trend, Le Pen is polling much closer this time. The smart money says Macron will win a close race. But the smart money was on Hillary in 2016. And France’s commitment to Europe, the EU, and NATO will be decided by the outcome.
The French role in Europe became more significant when Angela Merkel retired. And it holds the European Presidency until July. If Macron wins, the country's commitment to the EU will be unchanged. As will its opposition to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. And the sanctions against Russia will remain in place. A Le Pen victory would make France’s role on the continent less clear.
Le Pen has moderated her position recently in an attempt to attract enough of the less-educated, white, French working-class to make a viable run at the Presidency. However, what you do when elected is often different from what you said you would do when campaigning. And if Le Pen is elected it is also likely that France will leave NATO. And the country will no longer be a reliable partner against Russia and may water down its sanctions on that war-crime-committing country.
Le Pen has toned down her stance on leaving the European Union. And the Brexit disaster has cooled the ardor of French nationalists to take the economically disastrous step of quitting the EU. But while she may not call for a ‘Frexit’ she could weaken the economic bloc’s cohesion.
Le Pen is not new to the far-right of French politics. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founded the extreme right-wing party ‘National Front” in 1972. His political philosophy anticipated the 2016 GOP — with ultra-nationalism based on Islamaphobia and a virulent anti-immigrant stance married to a “family values” and “law and order” platform.
While not a Holocaust denier, Le Pen said it was impossible there were 6 million victims. He also suggested the WWII Nazi-collaborating French leader Marshal Pétain was a better man than the leader of the Free French, General DeGaulle. And Le Pen is a fan of bringing the death penalty back to France. I suspect with a preference for its use on minority citizens. He is also a rabid anti-Semite, calling a previous French President, Nicholas Sarkozy, who had Greek Jewish roots, ‘the Foreigner’.
Marine Le Pen realized that the National Front would not be a significant force in French presidential politics with that overt bigotry. She rebranded it “National Rally”. And in 2015 even expelled her father from the party. It was a good move. Jean Marie Le Pen did make it to the runoff round of the 2002 French presidential election but received only 18% of the vote against Jaques Chirac. It was the most one-sided French presidential election ever.
Le Pen’s National Rally party is part of a growing nationalist movement in Europe. These far-right parties, such as the Freedom Party of Austria, the Danish People’s Party, the Alternative for Germany, the Lega Nord in Italy, Vox in Spain, and the Swiss People’s Party have made inroads in their respective countries’ national legislatures. And they aspire to join the nationalist parties in Hungary (Fidesz) and Poland (United Right) in taking control of the government.
If Le Pen should win — and should US Republicans take back the House and Senate in 2022, and hold them while winning the Presidency in 2024 — anti-democratic forces would be in a dominant position in the Western World. Just as they are in Russia, China, the Middle East, and large parts of Africa. And let’s also note that Jair Bolsonaro, the President of Brazil, South America’s largest and most populous country publicly suggested in September 2021 he would not accept a defeat in the October 2022 elections. Thus joining anti-democrats in Cuba, Venezuela, and Peru. (Note: these are far-left nationalists, proving that politics is a circle, not a line. And there is little daylight between the authoritarians at either extreme.)
Are we all doomed?