Next Wednesday begins the race for 2024. Who are the Democratic candidates if Biden doesn't run?
I know. It is way too soon. But If stores can put up Christmas displays before Halloween, I can talk about 2024 in 2022.
Conventional wisdom says that an incumbent one-term President will run for a second term. And that is mostly true. In the 19th century, Polk, Buchanan, and Hayes pledged to serve one term — and unusually for politicians, they kept their word. In the 20th century, Teddy Roosevelt and Coolidge declared they would not run after their single full terms were complete. Truman decided not to run in 1952 after he saw his polls. And Johnson did not compete in 1968 after he ran out of gas. Interestingly, all four men had become President after their predecessor was assassinated or died in office — and served a partial term before their one full four-year term.
Bearing that in mind, we should expect Joe Biden to run for reelection. However, he would be 82 on the first day of his second term — six years older than Reagan was on the last day of his second term. Biden himself has vacillated between saying he is running and saying he is still thinking about it. In a recent 60 Minutes interview, he said, “Look, my intention, as I said, to begin with, is that I would run again. But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”
The second piece of conventional wisdom is that the incumbent Vice-President will run if the current President does not. Biden sat out in 2016, and Cheney bailed in 2008. However, before that Gore, Bush I, Humphrey, and Nixon all did. As did Alban Barkley — although he failed to make it to the general after he finished third in the 1952 Democratic primary. But that is enough history.
Kamala Harris (58) cannot reveal her plans as long as Biden is still a potential candidate. Although I believe the odds are that she would run if Biden does not. Why not? She is the first woman, Black American, and the first South Asian American to be elected Vice President. Biden has made it tough for her by giving her the immigration portfolio. And she has suffered from a poor PR operation.
Biden has also given her prominence in the administration’s push to preserve abortion access and promote worker rights. And that is fertile ground for Democratic candidates. 2023 will allow her — especially if Biden makes an early decision not to run again — to make a better and more visible impression.
What if Biden decides to retire and Harris either does not run — or does but does not win the nomination? Who is the most likely Democratic candidate? I have no idea — but I would love to hear any suggestions in the comments.
Possible candidates include the old guard: Bernie Sanders (81) and Elizabeth Warren (73). Other previous candidates who are not so venerable: Amy Klobuchar (62), Cory Booker (53), and Pete Buttigieg (40). The Governors: Roy Cooper, NC (65) Gretchen Whitmer, MI (51) Gavin Newsome, CA (55) J.B. Pritzker, IL (57). And those who do not fit into those categories: Stacey Abrams (50) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (33), and Mitch Landrieu (62).
It is not often that a candidate, who loses in a presidential primary, goes on to win the presidency later. But Biden, who had lost twice, proved it is possible. So the previous also-rans can also dream.
Bernie Sanders’ problem is his age. Do not get me wrong. His mind is as sharp as it ever was, and his followers are loyal to the point of cultism. But politically, it will burden him as he is even older than Biden.
Elizabeth Warren is also young for her age and well-versed in policy minutia. She and Bernie can both stand up to the GOP's bullies — those loudmouths who compensate for their small policies with meme-throwing aggression.
The other 2020 also-rans:
Pete Buttigieg has the best chance. Typically, the US Secretary of Transportation is not a household name. Most people would be hard-pressed to name two if they could name any. However, Buttigieg is Secretary at a time when one of Biden’s crowning achievements is the Infrastructure Bill. Buttigieg has wide name recognition as the first openly gay man to run for a major-party candidacy. And he is a preternaturally able and unafraid interviewee. In one remarkable performance, he had a Fox News audience applaud his defense of late-term abortions.
Amy Klobuchar is capable, but she comes across as bland. That should not be a disqualifier. But politics is image and sizzle. And far too often, ability has nothing to do with success. Note: Biden was not an energizing candidate. But he was lifted by Obama’s reflected charisma. Democrats demand more substance from their candidates than Republicans — who, at their current trajectory, may end up nominating a rabid dog as a candidate. Just for the fun of it. Note: Klobuchar has announced she will run for a fourth Senate term in 2024. However, should Biden retire, who knows?
Cory Booker is perhaps even blander than Klobuchar. He is a progressive who has been criticized by the left for relying too much on corporate donations. And I am not sure who his base would be. If he did win the nomination, he would be the first vegan (at least to my knowledge and based on a cursory internet search) major party candidate for President. And at 6’ 4”, he would tie for tallest ever President should he win the brass ring.
The Governors:
Roy Cooper is a well-regarded Southern Governor with cross-over appeal — not to the MAGAs, but to the 33% of Republicans who accept Biden won in 2020. And the independents would regard him favorably. Which means he is too centrist to win the Democratic nomination.
J.B. Pritzker is the wealthiest politician in America, with a net worth of $3.6 billion. He also checks all the liberal boxes on gun control, climate change, legalizing marijuana, immigration, and net neutrality. He is particularly good with abortion. In 2019, in his first year as Governor, he signed an Act that repealed a restrictive 1975 post-Roe anti-abortion law. And he now encourages pregnant women from anti-choice states to come to Illinois to exercise their right to choose. As for presidential ambitions, he has been coy. However, he has donated money to Democrats nationwide and visited New Hampshire.
Gretchen Whitmer has been the target of a MAGA kidnapping plot. And that is good PR. She also won the governorship of Michigan in 2018, a position previously held by a Republican. And she did so by 9.5% — in a state Trump had won in 2016. If she is reelected next week, she can market herself as a Democratic winner in a swing state.
Gavin Newsome denies he is interested in the presidency. However, he has been campaigning nationally — even though he has his own reelection next week. And he is building an election machine. Newsome has expressed frustration with the typical Democratic milquetoast campaigning. Why do they keep thinking there are rules in a knife fight? He put his money where his mouth is with an advertising campaign in Florida criticizing that state's restrictive abortion and school laws. He is also 6’ 3” with great hair. (It should not count, but it does.)
The others:
Stacy Abrams is a challenging candidate. If she wins her election for Georgia Governor next week, it will likely preclude her from running for President in 2024. If she does not, she will be a two-time loser. File it under "damned if you do, damned if you don’t." She has been a force in Georgia politics with many firsts for a Black woman in the state — including House Minority Leader. However, she risks being the new Hillary Clinton, an enormously talented person who cannot translate ability into votes.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has name recognition and would be two months over the age of eligibility. But the prospect is unlikely. She is in here for the sake of completeness. Watch out for her in the future. The Democrats need her and other Latino liberals to shore up their support among Hispanics.
Mitch Landrieu is also an off-the-wall name. His crowning achievement was as Mayor of New Orleans when he did much to speed the recovery from Hurricane Katrina after initial efforts had lagged. His success led Biden to appoint him a senior advisor and coordinator of the rollout of his infrastructure project. If he does well, that will give him a card to play. He is also a rare Democrat from the South who has held state-wide office, as he was the Lt. Gov. of Louisiana.
In another year, we will have a clearer idea of who is likely to run. However, the favorite then will be far from guaranteed a win. Just ask the train wreck victim, Jeb Bush.
My guess is Buttigieg and Newsome,and I’d vote for either one of them , here’s to a Blue Wave next week, thank you Pitt